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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-08-16T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15746/-1
CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Å. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-08-20T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-08-17T00:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 630
Longitude (deg): E024
Latitude (deg): S03
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: Glancing blow anticipated, with CME mainly behind Earth. Low confidence.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 60.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-08-17T14:55Z

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